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Weather Warning

Cold Weather Alert

Tel: 0370 900 0100 www.metoffice.gov.uk

 

NHS (Ref: MO43)

Forecast Issued on Thursday, 31 January 2019 at 12:23

 

Cold Weather Alert

Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/snow between 1400 on Thursday 31 Jan and 0900 on Friday 01 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services.

 

Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

 

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert

remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

Regional Risk Assessments for occurrence of Cold Weather conditions between 1400 Local Time

on Thursday 31 Jan and 0900 Local Time on Friday 01 Feb.

 

The areas that are likely to be affected are:

 

Region Risk Comments

 

North East England 90 % Cold conditions persisting with wintry showers bringing slight snow accumulations in places and icy

stretches possible.

 

North West England 90 % Cold conditions persisting with another hard frost expected. Wintry showers should be confined to high ground.

 

Yorkshire and the Humber 90 % Cold conditions persisting with wintry showers bringing slight snow accumulations in places and icy stretches possible.

 

West Midlands 80 % Cold conditions persisting with another hard frost expected. Wintry showers should be confined to high

ground.

 

East Midlands 80 % Cold conditions persisting with wintry showers bringing slight snow accumulations in places and icy

stretches possible.

 

East of England 70 % Cold conditions persisting with wintry showers bringing slight snow accumulations in places and icy

stretches possible. The south of the region may see some more persistent snow leading to patchy accumulations.

 

Southeast England 90 % Southeast England has been upgraded as a whole because parts of Hampshire look to see some significant snowfall, mainly away from the south coast. The highest snowfall accumulations are likely to be in areas above 150 metres or so. The southeast more generally should still see some snow, but amounts will be more of the ilk 1-3cm, with higher ground perhaps more affected, e.g. the North/South Downs.

 

London 70 % While London should see another cold night and

some snow, this should be of the order of a centimetre or two in places, with the North Downs and Chilterns perhaps seeing a little more. Lesser amounts and lower confidence relative to the ‘Southeast’ region is the reason for no change in alert

level in London.

 

Southwest England 90 % A band of rain will arrive from the southwest on Thursday afternoon, quickly turning to snow and

becoming heavy at times. 3 to 7 cm is likely to accumulate quickly - within two to three hours - with up to 10 cm in some places. The highest snowfall accumulations are likely to be in areas above 150 metres or so.

 

General Comments:- This alert supersedes the alert issued on Monday 28 January and raises the alert level in Southwest and Southeast England to a Level 3. All other regions retain their previously held alert levels.

 

The upgrade for Southeast and Southwest is in light of the Met Office Amber NSWWS snow warning (for latest on this see link below):

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-31

 

There has been an unusually high degree of uncertainty in relation to snowfall locations and amounts associated with a weather system approaching the southern third of the UK today (Thursday 31 January), however confidence has now reached a point to warrant this upgrade in some areas.

 

This alert retains the same end time and will be revised and reissued by 0900 Friday 01 February for details regarding the first few days of February. Present thinking is that while there are still some cold nights, ice and snowfall possible, there is a trend towards conditions gradually becoming a little less cold.

 

For winter health surveillance bulletins from Public Health England, please use the following link:

http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/winter-health-watch

 

The PHE Cold Weather Plan can be accessed at the following link:

http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-plan-for-england

 

A range of free resources from the Stay Well This Winter campaign can be downloaded or ordered here https://campaignresources.phe.gov.uk/resources/campaigns/34-stay-well-this-winter-

 

To aid local planning, listed below are the Local resilience Forum (LRFs) matched against their regions.

NHS Region NSWW Region Local Resilience Forum

North

North East England

Durham and Darlington

Northumbria

Cleveland

Yorkshire and the Humber

Humber

North Yorkshire

West Yorkshire

South Yorkshire

North West England

Cheshire

Cumbria

Greater Manchester

Lancashire

Merseyside

Midlands

West Midlands

Staffordshire

Warwickshire

West Mercia

West Midlands

East Midlands

Derbyshire

Leicestershire

Lincolnshire

Northamptonshire

Nottinghamshire

East of England

Bedfordshire

Cambridgeshire

Essex

Hertfordshire

Norfolk

Suffolk

South

South East England

Sussex

Kent

Surrey

Thames Valley

Hampshire and Isle of Wight

South West England

Avon & Somerset

Devon, Cornwall & Isle of Scilly

Dorset

Gloucestershire

Wiltshire and Swindon

London London London

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